Staatsbankrott - who's next?

Möchte hier aus dem Netz gefischte Neuigkeiten über mögliche Pleitekandidaten sammeln. Es scheinen wirklich sehr viele zu sein. Nicht nur Island und Ungarn, sondern auch Ukraine und Pakistan zum Beispiel:

Pakistan facing bankruptcy

Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves are so low that the country can only afford one month of imports and faces possible bankruptcyOfficially, the central bank holds $8.14 billion (£4.65 billion) of foreign currency, but if forward liabilities are included, the real reserves may be only $3 billion - enough to buy about 30 days of imports like oil and food.

Nine months ago, Pakistan had $16 bn in the coffers.
The government is engulfed by crises left behind by Pervez Musharraf, the military ruler who resigned the presidency in August. High oil prices have combined with endemic corruption and mismanagement to inflict huge damage on the economy.


Given the country's standing as a frontline state in the US-led "war on terrorism", the economic crisis has profound consequences. Pakistan already faces worsening security as the army clashes with militants in the lawless Tribal Areas on the north-west frontier with Afghanistan.
The economic crisis has already placed the future of the new government in doubt after the transition to a civilian rule. President Asif Ali Zardari has faced numerous but unproven allegations of corruption dating from the two governments led by his wife, Benazir Bhutto, who was assassinated last December.


The Wall Street Journal said that Pakistan's economic travails were "at least in part, a crisis of confidence in him".
While Mr Musharraf's prime minister, Shaukat Aziz, frequently likened Pakistan to a "Tiger economy", the former government left an economy on the brink of ruin without any durable base.


The Pakistan rupee has lost more than 21 per cent of its value so far this year and inflation now runs at 25 per cent. The rise in world prices has driven up Pakistan's food and oil bill by a third since 2007.


Efforts to defer payment for 100,000 barrels of oil supplied every day by Saudi Arabia have not yet yielded results, while the government has also failed to raise loans on favourable terms from "friendly countries".
Mr Zardari told the Wall Street Journal that Pakistan needed a bail out worth $100 billion from the international community.


"If I can't pay my own oil bill, how am I going to increase my police?" he asked. "The oil companies are asking me to pay $135 [per barrel] of oil and at the same time they want me to keep the world peaceful and Pakistan peaceful."
The ratings agency Standard and Poor's has given Pakistan's sovereign debt a grade of CCC +, which stands only a few notches above the default level.
The agency gave warning that Pakistan may be unable to cover about $3 billion in upcoming debt payments.


Mr Zardari is expected to ask the international community for a rescue package at a meeting in Abu Dhabi next month.


This gathering will determine whether the West is willing to bail out Pakistan.

Zum Vergrößern anklicken....

Nouriel Roubini von rgemonitor.com


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Welche Länder werden sich an den IWF wenden:[/COLOR]




* Several Emerging economies and one advanced one are in talks with the IMF or regional institutions to provide capital in the face of global liquidity shortage. These countries tend to have high external financing needs (large current account deficits/GDP etc) Judging from the development in credit default swaps (CDS) other countries might soon have to ask for assistance from the IMF (Danske), particularly those with large current account deficits. The risk of contagion especially in Eastern Europe and Eurasia is high is high. Though some may turn to regional financing eg Hungary to the ECB, Indonesia to the ADB or Central American countries to the IDB rather than the IMF

* Citi: The rise in default risk premia across CEEMEA may reflect the the greater likelihood of capital controls. Ukraine is most at risk of such a move

* Merrill: EEMEA banking systems remain structurally underdeveloped and not levered. Yet higher credit growth relative to deposits suggests that despite comfortable loans-to-deposits ratios EEMEA banks have been reliant on loans from foreign "parent-banks", which underscores the short-term risk of loans growth slowdown. Several foreign-owned banks in the region reportedly freezing credit lines even for CEE "blue chips" over the past two weeks.


* FT: countries in the Baltics and Balkans – including countries like Latvia and Bulgaria have much larger funding gaps as a share of GDP than Hungary

* Ukraine may receive $14b from the IMF in a move that could provide much-needed credibility. Ukraine's CDS spreads have risen to 1900bps points, more than 4x June levels. Ukraine's current account deficit might be as large as $15 billion. ->Citi: Aside from announcing extraordinary measures aimed at preventing a flight to foreign exchange, Ukrainian policy response requires additional credibility, and this should come in the form of an IMF program that reinforces needed policies

* Iceland's government announced it could ask for a loan from the IMF in addition to opening formal talks on Oct 14 to borrow as much as EUR4 billion ($5.5 billion) from Russia to shore up its foreign currency reserves and stabilize the exchange rate. It has nationalized its bank

* On Oct 13 the IMF pledged to help Hungary as needed after bonds, equity and the forint plunged the previous week. The central bank will pump unlimited funds to the interbank market through daily currency-swap tenders and scrap a limit on pension fund bond holdings to support the bond market. Hungary has received emergency funds from the ECB though despite early indications that CEE countries might be left out in the cold as Western European countries supported their own financial systems

* Serbia: Government asked IMF for a new deal, saying it would not necessarily seek funding from the lender, but an agreement to reassure investors that Serbia was safe.

* Other countries that may face short-term funding issues but might not apply to international institutions include South Korea and Kazakhstan

Aber es fängt wirklich überall an. Von larouchepac.com:

Bankrupt Massachusetts Slashes Services
Increase Decrease

October 16, 2008 (LPAC)-- Gov. Duval Patrick (D-Mass.) on Oct. 14, previewed his plans to cut the budget, due to a $1.5 billion shortfall, warning that "people will feel this in their services. This is not about cutting so-called fat. This is going to cut muscle, because the scale of the issue requires that." On Oct. 15, he did it: 1,000 state jobs and nearly $1 billion in spending were axed, hitting everything from state university campuses and community colleges, the state's health insurance programs, to dozens of social service programs.

The Massachusetts story is not unique. Every state in the Union faces the same shortfalls and deficits, and thus far, state leaders are responding just like Massachusetts officials. Until they get up on their hind legs and join the fight led by Lyndon LaRouche to return to American System economic principles as FDR did, they will find themselves adopting policies which will kill people.

Mass. House Speaker Salvatore DiMasi's statement that "behind every cut the governor made are important services for the Commonwealth, jobs that support families and worthy programs. Make no mistake, these cuts will certainly inflict pain, but, in these uncharted and choppy waters, the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, we must act," typifies the lemming leadership principle still dominating.

LaRouche and LYM organizers warned Patrick, before he was elected, that this blow-out was inevitable if LaRouche's policies were not adopted.

Now Patrick and his team find themselves cutting $300 million out of health care. "The state's Medicaid program, known as MassHealth," bears the brunt of these cuts -- $293 million -- axing hospitals and doctors reimbursements for services to the poor. The Massachusetts Hospital Association warned that the cuts will create "extreme hardship for many hospitals and the communities they serve."

In addition, the governor's cuts eliminate $4 million in municipal police grants and $5 million from local law enforcement-assistance programs; a cut of $1.6 million in matching grants for school-to-work programs; and the reduction of special education funding by $13.5 million.

Zum Vergrößern anklicken....

..........Ich überlege mir nur, was genau zu tun ist, falls das Imperium wirklich
zusammenbrechen sollte. Das erste sichere Anzeichen wird auf jeden Fall eine
stundenweise Stromversorgung sein.
Ich werde mich jetzt mal um das Thema Notverpflegung kümmern.
Hat jemand zufällig Erfahrung damit? Bin mir nicht sicher, ob es sinnvoll ist,
die Stadt zu Fuß und Rucksack zu verlassen.

mhmmmm
eine ratlose Iphi

hm Iphi

es gibt nen paar nette Bücher über kochen an Bord, insbesondere für lange Törns, speziell zum Thema einkochen.

Ansonsten ... nachdem wir Sylt überstanden haben (3 Tage ... naja ... Landschaft schön, ansonsten morbid bis zum abwinken) mußten wir erstmal nach Fresenhagen. Am So. ist da, leider von den Grünen ... ne nette Veranstaltung zum Thema bedingungsloses Grundeinkommen, überlege derzeit ob ich hin fahre, schaun wer mal.

Gruß
Peter

Iphigenie schrieb:

..........Ich überlege mir nur, was genau zu tun ist, falls das Imperium wirklich
zusammenbrechen sollte. Das erste sichere Anzeichen wird auf jeden Fall eine
stundenweise Stromversorgung sein.
Ich werde mich jetzt mal um das Thema Notverpflegung kümmern.
Hat jemand zufällig Erfahrung damit? Bin mir nicht sicher, ob es sinnvoll ist,
die Stadt zu Fuß und Rucksack zu verlassen.

mhmmmm
eine ratlose Iphi

Zum Vergrößern anklicken....

Ich habe mir erst mal gute Wanderschuhe gekauft. :rolleyes2: